Art market cycles

The international auction calendar is the main driver of the art market cycle. The heart of the market shifts week by week, largely in line with what auctions are coming up on the three leading markets in France, the US and the UK.

Each year the auction houses shut up shop over Christmas and New Year. Business picks up again in New York first, with 2,500 to 3,000 lots on offer in the second half of January. London then brings the hammer down on a similar number of artworks a couple of weeks later. From then on until mid-July, the UK puts up a continuous weekly flow of more than 1,000 lots, which peaks at 2,000 to 3,000 lots per week at the end of the first half, rounding off the spring/summer auction season with a large number of prestigious auctions covering all categories of artworks. In France, March and June are the busiest times, with close to 10,000 lots sold at auction in each of these two months. But by value, there can be no comparison with New York’s auctions in the first three weeks in May, which normally generate turnover in excess of USD600m—almost a quarter of the annual total. One-fifth of annual sales of lots valued at over EUR100,000 thus take place in under three weeks.

The number of auctions drops sharply from mid-July to mid-September. During this period barely 3,000 lots per week are put up for auction worldwide. But Australia keeps the ball rolling, with some fine auctions in August.The second season only really kicks off in the last week of September, when all the main markets hold some auctions. These are often relatively low key events, ahead of the more prestigious sales held in November and early December. The market then gets into full swing for three or four weeks in late autumn. Works valued in excess of EUR100,000 begin to come back onto the market. The first week in November is an especially busy time for the top end of the market, while, for all categories combined, the last week in November is the most hectic, with dozens of auctions held worldwide and 15,000 to 20,000 lots sold in less than a week.

This year the war in Iraq and the economic downturn do not look to have disrupted the art market’s smooth running after all. Sales are going ahead at the usual pace. The May auctions in New York, though unexceptional, reassured collectors. And the French auctions are being particularly well received.